 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
| |
| 氣候變遷的事實 - 對大氣的衝擊
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1. 溫室氣體的水平
- 目前，聯合國跨政府氣候變遷小組（IPCC）針對最壞情況的一些預測正逐漸成為事實，或甚至更糟，到了本世紀末，二氧化碳的濃度將會達到1,000ppm，引發災難性的後果。為了讓地球維持在與目前差不多的狀況，人類必須努力將目前385ppm的二氧化碳濃度降低，控制在350ppm的目標水平才行。
- 目前的「碳匯」（Carbon sinks）逐漸呈現飽和狀態，變成會增加溫室氣體的碳源，而不是吸收溫室氣體。
- 由於氣候變遷引發乾旱的壓力，全球植物的生長已呈現10年的衰退（2000年至2009年）。（《科學》〔Science〕雜誌，2010年8月）
- 海洋已吸收了太多二氧化碳，導致酸化的速度令人擔憂。（《自然地球科學》〔Nature Geoscience〕期刊，布里斯托大學的研究人員，2010年）
- 只要全球平均升溫攝氏2 度，數十億噸甲烷就可能從北極釋出，導致生命大量滅絕。
2. 溫度的上升
- 現在若沒有採取任何重大的行動，氣溫升高攝氏4度的最壞情況將提前至2060年發生，這表示沙漠規模擴大，亞馬遜雨林瓦解，永凍層融化而釋放出巨量的甲烷和二氧化碳；到21世紀末，就可能升溫攝氏5度至7度，引發災難性的後果。（英國氣象局，2009年）
- 科學家指出，2010年前8個月已創下全球史上最高氣溫紀錄。（美國太空總署〔NASA〕，2010年）
- 2010年，16 個國家經歷了前所未有的酷熱和創紀錄高溫，這也是酷熱國家數量最多的一 年，包括科威特、伊拉克、沙烏地阿拉伯、查德、尼日、俄羅斯、緬甸和巴基斯坦在內。
- 由於人為因素，全球平均氣溫僅僅在過去一個世紀就上升了攝氏0.7度，上升速度比歷史標準快上10 倍。
- 過去10年來的年平均氣溫，也創下地球有史以來的最高溫紀錄。（美國太空總署，2010年）
- 情況若沒有舒緩，舉例來說，美國大部分地區在本世紀末恐將達到華氏122 度（攝氏50度）的極端高溫。（《地球物理研究通訊》〔Geophysical Research Letters〕期刊的報告，2008年）
- 各國政府在哥本哈根會議對減少溫室氣體排放所做的承諾，不足以避免氣候變遷的失控，仍然會導致危險的升溫達攝氏3度以上。（美國麻省理工學院，2010年）
|
|
|
| 參考來源 |
|
- McDermott, M. (2009, December 3). Worst-Case IPCC Climate Change Trajectories Are Being Realized: Copenhagen Climate Congress Concludes. treehugger. Retrieved January, 2011 from
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/03/worst-case-ipcc-climate-change-trajectories-being-realized-copenhagen-climate-congress-concludes.php - Romm, J. (2009, March 22). An introduction to global warming impacts: Hell and High Water. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from
http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/22/an-introduction-to-global-warming-impacts-hell-and-high-water/
- He, G. (2008, July 9). Finding a Safe Level of Carbon Dioxide for the Global Atmosphere: Results of the Tallberg Forum. World Resources Institute. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/320
- Zhao, M. and Running, S.W. (2010, August 20). Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009. Science 329(5994), 940-943 [Electronic version]. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/329/5994/940.abstract
- Ridgwell A., and Schmidt, D.N. (2010 , February 14). Past constraints on the vulnerability of marine calcifiers to massive carbon dioxide release. Nature Geoscience online. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from Global Warming University of Bristol news website http://www.bris.ac.uk/news/2010/6835.html
- Romm, J. (2010). A stunning year in climate science reveals that human civilization is on the precipice. Climate Progress blog. Retrieved January , 2011 from
http://climateprogress.org/2010/11/15/year-in-climate-science-climategate/
- Shukman, D. (2009, September 29). Four degrees of warming ‘likely’. BBC News. Retrieved January , 2011 from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8279654.stm
- Lynas, M. (2007, April 23). ‘Six steps to hell’ - summary of Six Degrees as published in The Guardian. Retrieved January , 2011 from
http://www.marklynas.org/2007/4/23/six-steps-to-hell-summary-of-six-degrees-as-published-in-the-guardian
- McDermott, M. (2009). 5.2°C Temperature Rise by 2100: New Business-As-Usual Climate Scenario Presented. treehugger. Retrieved January , 2011 from
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/05/5-degree-celsius-temperature-rise-by-2100-new-mit-business-as-usual-scenario.php
- Romm, J. (2010). NASA reports hottest January to August on record. Climate Progress blog. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from
http://climateprogress.org/2010/09/12/nasahottest-january-to-august-on-record/
- Highest temperature ever recorded (2010). Wikipedia. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records
- Riebeek, H. (2010). Global Warming. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from NASA, Earth Observatory website
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php - Voiland, A. (2010). 2009: Second Warmest Year on Record; End of Warmest Decade. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from NASA, Science News website
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html
- Romm, J. (2008, July 31). When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? An online acticle on the Geophysical Research Letters paper. Climate Progress blog. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/31/when-can-we-expect-extremely-high-surface-temperatures/
- Vidal, J. (2010, Februay 12 ). Carbon targets pledged at Copenhagen ‘fail to keep temperature rise to 2C’. An online acticle on the US Massachusetts Institute of Technology [MIT] analysis. The Guardian. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/12/copenhagen-carbon-emission-pledges
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
轉寄好友
列印
suprememastertv.com